DiscoverWealth, Wine and WisdomS2E15: $12 Trillion Real Estate & The Government's 'Four Menaces' | Wine and Wisdom
S2E15: $12 Trillion Real Estate & The Government's 'Four Menaces' | Wine and Wisdom

S2E15: $12 Trillion Real Estate & The Government's 'Four Menaces' | Wine and Wisdom

Update: 2025-11-21
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Fenton and Whitten are together in person for a special edition of Wine and Wisdom, debriefing the week and navigating the political uncertainty and clickbait journalism surrounding wealth creation.


 

They dive deep into the booming Australian residential real estate market, tearing down the "mortgage stress" narrative and debating the potential for a property price crash by looking at the lessons from Japan. The hosts also rant on government overreach, including the ATO's latest attempt to police holiday home tax deductions , and the lunacy of policies that punish Australians for simply creating wealth. Finally, they look at the simple, disciplined strategy for maximizing your Superannuation and discuss the future of work in the age of AI.


 


Episode Highlights

  • Australian Residential Real Estate Hits a New High: The value of residential real estate has cracked $12 trillion for the first time in Australia's history, making it the country's largest asset class.

  • Myth-Busting "Mortgage Stress": The hosts challenge the media's narrative of widespread "mortgage stress," pointing to the total outstanding mortgage debt of $2.5 trillion against the $12 trillion asset value, suggesting an overall low Loan-to-Value Ratio (LVR).

  • The "Four Menaces" Erode Wealth: The hosts warn against reacting to the "Four Menaces" that erode wealth in Australia, crowning politicians as the number one menace.

  • The "What If" Scenario: Could Australian Property Prices Crash? Discussion on the possibility of a property price decline, dismissing the idea as "rubbish" but analyzing what happened in Japan for comparison.

  • Market Manipulation by Government: Criticism of "fake economics" where market manipulation through subsidies or legislation (like first-home buyer grants) only causes property values to rise, creating a "manipulation gap" that capitalism will always close.

  • Conflict of Interest at the Top: Concerns are raised over former executives from ethics and regulation bodies (Fasea and ASIC) launching a trustee service, suggesting an advantageous privatization of business models based on rules they wrote.

  • ATO Overreach on Holiday Homes: A rant against the Australian Tax Office's draft guidance that proposes disallowing tax deductions for holiday homes if the property is considered "mainly for personal use," especially during "peak periods".

  • Lending Restrictions and Supply Chain: Discussion on APRA's looming lending curbs and policies like the Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI) , arguing that five years of restricting lending has contributed to the supply chain issue in housing.

  • Government Competing in the Housing Market: Criticism of government entities like Housing Australia buying up bulk properties and utilizing shared equity schemes where the taxpayer (via government) takes a 40% stake in the homeowner's property.

  • Superannuation Discipline: The hosts illustrate a simple, powerful super strategy: contributing an extra $100 per week can dramatically increase retirement savings, pushing people into the politician-defined territory of being "horribly, egregiously rich".

  • The Future of Work and AI: A warning that the Australian future is not in white-collar administration, as AI and tools like Chat GPT will take over many processes , emphasizing the increasing value and scarcity of vocational trades like plumbing.

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S2E15: $12 Trillion Real Estate & The Government's 'Four Menaces' | Wine and Wisdom

S2E15: $12 Trillion Real Estate & The Government's 'Four Menaces' | Wine and Wisdom

Andy Fenton, Jason Whitton